Posted: December 16, 2014
As promised, I will review my preseason picks in an effort to provide you with evidence that I have absolutely no idea what I am talking about! This review will most likely be an utter embarrassment, but unlike the other preseason picks that fade into oblivion, I think I owe it to myself and others to see how I did. So without further ado…
SEC
In the SEC East, I missed on Missouri again. That is two years in a row the Tigers have surprised me by winning the East. In the West, I had Alabama (along with the rest of the world) and undersold the Mississippi schools just a bit. Everything else was not too far off and I was spot on with the bottom of each division, for whatever that is worth.
| Prediction | Actual |
| East | |
| 1. Georgia 11-1 (7-1) | 1. Missouri 10-2 (7-1) |
| 2. South Carolina 9-3 (6-2) | 2. Georgia 9-3 (6-2) |
| 3. Missouri 9-3 (5-3) | 3. Florida 6-5 (4-4) |
| 3. Florida 8-4 (5-3) 3-5 | 4. South Carolina 6-6 (3-5) |
| 5. Tennessee 5-7 (2-6) | 4. Tennessee 6-6 (3-5) |
| 6. Kentucky 4-8 (1-7) | 6. Kentucky 5-7 (2-6) |
| 7. Vanderbilt 4-8 (0-8) | 7. Vanderbilt 3-9 (0-8) |
| West | |
| 1. Alabama 12-0 (8-0) | 1. Alabama 11-1 (7-1) |
| 2. Auburn 10-2 (6-2) | 2. Mississippi State 10-2 (6-2) |
| 2. LSU 9-3 (6-2) | 3. Mississippi 9-3 (5-3) |
| 4. Mississippi State 8-4 (4-4) | 4. Auburn 8-4 (4-4) |
| 5. Mississippi 7-5 (3-5) | 4. LSU 8-4 (4-4) |
| 5. Texas A&M 7-5 (3-5) | 6. Texas A&M 7-5 (3-5) |
| 7. Arkansas 4-8 (0-8) | 7. Arkansas 6-6 (2-6) |
| Alabama will beat Georgia | Alabama defeated Missouri |
Big Ten
I had the Big Ten pretty much nailed. I got the winner of each division and was within a game on most of the other teams. I had the Big Ten championship game and winner. I was too high on Michigan and Iowa and not high enough on Minnesota and Rutgers, but I had this conference pretty much down cold.
| Prediction | Actual |
| East | |
| 1. Ohio State 11-1 (7-1) | 1. Ohio State 11-1 (8-0) |
| 1. Michigan State 10-2 (7-1) | 2. Michigan State 10-2 (7-1) |
| 1. Michigan 10-2 (7-1) | 3. Maryland 7-5 (4-4) |
| 4. Maryland 8-4 (4-4) | 4. Rutgers 7-5 (3-5) |
| 5. Penn State 7-5 (3-5) | 4. Michigan 5-7 (3-5) |
| 6. Indiana 5-7 (2-6) | 6. Penn State 6-6 (2-6) |
| 7. Rutgers 2-10 (0-8) | 7. Indiana 4-8 (1-7) |
| West | |
| 1. Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1) | 1. Wisconsin 10-2 (7-1) |
| 2. Iowa 10-2 (6-2) | 2. Nebraska 9-3 (5-3) |
| 3. Nebraska 9-3 (5-3) | 2. Minnesota 8-4 (5-3) |
| 4. Northwestern 7-5 (4-4) | 4. Iowa 7-5 (4-4) |
| 5. Illinois 5-7 (2-6) | 5. Illinois 6-6 (3-5) |
| 5. Minnesota 5-7 (2-6) | 5. Northwestern 5-7 (3-5) |
| 7. Purdue 2-10 (0-8) | 7. Purdue 3-9 (1-7) |
| Ohio State will beat Wisconsin | Ohio State beat Wisconsin |
Big 12
In my mind, I got this conference champion correct. I had Baylor winning a tie break over Oklahoma and instead they win a tie break over TCU (all head to head). Along with the entire universe I was too high on Oklahoma and I was also too high on Ok State. I really missed on West Virginia picking them last in the conference, instead of the middle of the pack and was also way too low on Kansas State. But all in all, I think I did fairly well with this conference.
| Prediction | Actual |
| 1. Baylor 11-1 (8-1) | 1. Baylor 11-1 (8-1) |
| 1. Oklahoma 11-1 (8-1) | 1. TCU 11-1 (8-1) |
| 3. TCU 9-3 (6-3) | 3. Kansas State 9-3 (7-2) |
| 3. Texas 8-4 (6-3) | 4. Oklahoma 8-4 (5-4) |
| 3. OKlahoma State 8-4 (6-3) | 4. West Virginia 7-5 (5-4) |
| 6. Kansas State 7-5 (5-4) | 4. Texas 6-6 (5-4) |
| 7. Texas Tech 4-8 (2-7) | 7. Oklahoma State 6-6 (4-5) |
| 7. Iowa State 3-9 (2-7) | 8. Texas Tech 4-8 (2-7) |
| 9. Kansas 3-9 (1-8) | 9. Kansas 3-9 (1-8) |
| 9. West Virginia 2-10 (1-8) | 10. Iowa State 2-10 (0-9) |
ACC
I think it is fair to say I nailed the Atlantic and completely whiffed on the Coastal. I had the ultimate champion in FSU (tough one, huh) and most of the Atlantic. I completely missed on Georgia Tech and thought NC and Miami would be much better than they were.
| Prediction | Actual |
| Atlantic | |
| 1. Florida State 12-0 (8-0) | 1. Florida State 12-0 (8-0) |
| 2. Clemson 9-3 (6-2) | 2. Clemson 9-3 (6-2) |
| 3. Louisville 8-4 (5-3) | 3. Louisville 9-3 (5-3) |
| 4. Syracuse 6-6 (4-4) | 4. Boston College 7-5 (4-4) |
| 5. North Carolina State 7-5 (3-5) | 5. North Carolina State 7-5 (3-5) |
| 6. Boston College 4-8 (2-6) | 6. Syracuse 3-9 (1-7) |
| 7. Wake Forest 3-9 (0-8) | 7. Wake Forest 3-9 (1-7) |
| Coastal | |
| 1. North Carolina 10-2 (7-1) | 1. Georgia Tech 10-2 (6-2) |
| 2. Miami 9-3 (6-2) | 2. Duke 9-3 (5-3) |
| 3. Virginia Tech 8-4 (5-3) | 3. Pittsburgh 6-6 (4-4) |
| 4. Pittsburgh 7-5 (4-4) | 3. North Carolina 6-6 (4-4) |
| 5. Duke 7-5 (3-5) | 5. Miami 6-6 (3-5) |
| 6. Georgia Tech 5-7 (2-6) | 5. Virginia Tech 6-6 (3-5) |
| 7. Virginia 3-9 (1-7) | 7. Virginia 5-7 (3-5) |
| Florida State will beat North Carolina | Florida State beat Georgia Tech |
PAC 12
In the North, I had Oregon but Cal was a bit better than I thought and Oregon State was worse. In the South, I liked UCLA to win and they stumbled early otherwise not too bad a pick. I liked Arizona but they outperformed my expectations. What I really missed on this conference was how much better the South was than the North. Five of the six South teams had winning conference records.
| Prediction | Actual |
| North | |
| 1. Oregon 11-1 (8-1) | 1. Oregon 11-1 (8-1) |
| 2. Stanford 9-3 (7-2) | 2. Stanford 7-5 (5-4) |
| 3. Washington 10-3 (6-3) | 3. Washington 8-5 (4-5) |
| 4. Oregon State 8-4 (5-4) | 4. California 5-7 (3-6) |
| 5. Washington State 4-8 (1-8) | 5. Oregon State 5-7 (2-7) |
| 5. California 2-10 (1-8) | 5. Washington State 3-9 (2-7) |
| South | |
| 1. UCLA 11-1 (8-1) | 1. Arizona 10-2 (7-2) |
| 2. USC 10-2 (7-2) | 2. UCLA 9-3 (6-3) |
| 3. Arizona 8-4 (5-4) | 2. Arizona State 9-3 (6-3) |
| 4. Arizona State 6-6 (4-5) | 2. USC 8-4 (6-3) |
| 5. Utah 3-9 (2-7) | 5. Utah 8-4 (5-4) |
| 6. Colorado 2-10 (0-9) | 6. Colorado 2-10 (0-9) |
| UCLA will beat Oregon | Oregon beat Arizona |
Independents
Clearly I was too high on Notre Dame.
| Prediction | Actual |
| 1. Notre Dame 10-2 | 1. BYU 8-4 |
| 2. BYU 9-3 | 2. Notre Dame 7-5 |
| 2. Navy 9-3 | 2. Navy 7-5 |
| 4. Army 6-6 | 4. Army 4-8 |
American Athletic Conference
I was too high on Tulsa and too low on East Carolina and Memphis, but not too bad considering I do not know a whole lot about these teams, except for UCF which Al talks about constantly.
| Prediction | Actual |
| 1. UCF 10-2 (8-0) | 1. UCF 9-3 (7-1) |
| 2. Cincinnati 9-3 (7-1) | 1. Cincinnati 9-3 (7-1) |
| 3. Houston 9-3 (6-2) | 1. Memphis 9-3 (7-1) |
| 3. Tulsa 7-5 (6-2) | 4. East Carolina 8-4 (5-3) |
| 5. East Carolina 5-7 (4-4) | 4. Houston 7-5 (5-3) |
| 6. Memphis 5-7 (3-5) | 6. Temple 6-6 (4-4) |
| 6. SMU 3-9 (3-5) | 7. USF 4-8 (3-5) |
| 6. USF 4-8 (3-5) | 8. Tulane 3-9 (2-6) |
| 9. Temple 3-9 (2-6) | 8. Tulsa 2-10 (2-6) |
| 10. Tulane 2-10 (1-7) | 10. Connecticut 2-10 (1-7) |
| 10. Connecticut 2-10 (1-7) | 10. SMU 1-11 (1-7) |
Mountan West
I would say that my predictions in this conference were spot on as I was within a game on almost all schools.
| Prediction | Actual |
| West | |
| 1. Boise State 11-1 (8-0) | 1. Boise State 11-1 (7-1) |
| 2. Utah State 8-5 (6-2) | 2. Colorado State 10-2 (6-2) |
| 3. Colorado State 9-3 (5-3) | 2. Utah State 9-4 (6-2) |
| 4. Air Force 8-4 (4-4) | 4. Air Force 9-3 (5-3) |
| 5. New Mexico 3-9 (1-7) | 5. New Mexico 4-8 (2-6) |
| 5. Wyoming 2-10 (1-7) | 5. Wyoming 4-8 (2-6) |
| Mountain | |
| 1. Fresno State 9-3 (7-1) | 1. Fresno State 6-7 (5-3) |
| 2. San Diego State 7-5 (5-3) | 1. San Diego State 7-5 (5-3) |
| 2. Nevada 6-6 (5-3) | 3. Nevada 7-5 (4-4) |
| 4. San Jose State 5-7 (4-4) | 4. Hawaii 4-9 (3-5) |
| 5. Hawaii 2-11 (1-7) | 5. San Jose State 3-9 (2-6) |
| 6. UNLV 2-10 (1-7) | 6. UNLV 2-11 (1-7) |
| Boise State will beat Fresno State | Boise State beat Fresno State |
Mid American
Certainly a passing grade in the MAC. I had Toledo beating out Northern Illinois and while they finish with the same record, NIU goes to the title game and beats Bowling Green, instead of Toledo beating BGU like I predicted. Western Michigan was much better than I expected. Bowling Green was not as good as I expected but still managed to win the East. Congrats to UMass for making me look bad and winning three games while I had them winless. But overall, not too bad.
| Prediction | Actual |
| West | |
| 1. Toledo 9-3 (7-1) | 1. Northern Illinois 10-2 (7-1) |
| 2. Northern Illinois 8-4 (6-2) | 1. Toledo 8-4 (7-1) |
| 3. Central Michigan 6-6 (4-4) | 3. Western Michigan 8-4 (6-2) |
| 4. Ball State 5-7 (3-5) | 4. Central Michigan 7-5 (5-3) |
| 5. Western Michigan 2-10 (1-7) | 5. Ball State 5-7 (4-4) |
| 5. Eastern Michigan 2-10 (1-7) | 6. Eastern Michigan 2-10 (1-7) |
| East | |
| 1. Bowling Green 10-2 (8-0) | 1. Bowling Green 7-5 (5-3) |
| 2. Ohio 9-3 (7-1) | 2. Ohio 6-6 (4-4) |
| 3. Akron 7-5 (6-2) | 3. Buffalo 5-6 (3-4) |
| 4. Buffalo 7-5 (5-3) | 4. Akron 5-7 (3-5) |
| 5. Kent State 3-9 (2-6) | 4. Massachusetts 3-9 (3-5) |
| 5. Miami (oh) 3-9 (2-6) | 6. Miami (oh) 2-10 (2-6) |
| 7. Massachusetts 0-12 (0-8) | 7. Kent State 2-9 (1-6) |
| Toledo will beat Bowling Green | Northern Illinois beat Bowling Green |
Conference USA
Yes, UAB and UTEP were much better than I expected, but look at the last line. I corrected picked Marshall to beat Louisiana Tech in the title game. I had a four way tie of the West and yes, I did research the tie breaker to have the right team go on based upon each game that I picked. I also had most of the individual teams mostly correct.
| Prediction | Actual |
| East | |
| 1. Marshall 11-1 (7-1) | 1. Marshall 11-1 (7-1) |
| 2. Middle Tennessee State 7-5 (6-2) | 2. Middle Tennessee State 6-6 (5-3) |
| 3. Old Dominion 6-6 (4-4) | 3. Western Kentucky 7-5 (4-4) |
| 3. Western Kentucky 4-8 (4-4) | 3. Old Dominion 6-6 (4-4) |
| 5. Florida Atlantic 4-8 (2-6) | 3. UAB 6-6 (4-4) |
| 6. Florida International 3-9 (1-7) | 6. Florida International 4-8 (3-5) |
| 6. UAB 2-10 (1-7) | 7. Florida Atlantic 3-9 (2-6) |
| West | |
| 1. Louisiana Tech 7-5 (6-2) | 1. Louisiana Tech 8-5 (7-1) |
| 1. Rice 8-4 (6-2) | 2. Rice 7-5 (5-3) |
| 1. UTSA 7-5 (6-2) | 2. UTEP 7-5 (5-3) |
| 1. North Texas 8-4 (6-2) | 4. UTSA 4-8 (3-5) |
| 5. Southern Mississippi 4-8 (2-6) | 5. North Texas 4-8 (2-6) |
| 6. UTEP 2-10 (1-7) | 6. Southern Mississippi 4-8 (1-7) |
| Marshall will beat Louisiana Tech | Marshall beat Louisiana Tech |
Sun Belt
My worst conference as I did not do so great in the SBC. I figured FBS newcomers App State and GSU would struggle. They did not. My conference champion came in second but overall I would not say I did well in the SBC.
| Prediction | Actual |
| 1. Louisiana 10-2 (8-0) | 1. Georgia Southern 9-3 (8-0) |
| 2. South Alabama 8-4 (7-1) | 2. Louisiana 8-4 (7-1) |
| 3. Louisiana Monroe 7-5 (6-2) | 3. Appalachian State 7-5 (6-2) |
| 3. Arkansas State 7-5 (6-2) | 4. Texas State 7-5 (5-3) |
| 5. Troy 6-6 (4-4) | 4. Arkansas State 7-5 (5-3) |
| 5. Texas State 5-7 (4-4) | 4. South Alabama 6-6 (5-3) |
| 7. Idaho 4-8 (3-5) | 7. Louisiana Monroe 4-8 (3-5) |
| 7. Georgia Southern 4-8 (3-5) | 7. Troy 3-9 (3-5) |
| 9. Appalachian State 4-8 (2-6) | 9. New Mexico State 2-10 (1-7) |
| 10. New Mexico State 2-10 (1-7) | 9. Idaho 1-10 (1-7) |
| 11. Georgia State 1-11 (0-8) | 11. Georgia State 1-11 (0-8) |
Playoff Prediction:
| Prediction | Actual |
| #1 Florida State vs #4 Ohio State | #1 Alabama vs #4 Ohio State |
| #2 Alabama vs #3 UCLA | #2 Oregon vs #3 Florida State |
| #1 Florida State def. #2 Alabama | TBD |
I had three of the four teams in the playoff only having UCLA instead of Oregon. Oddly, my prediction from 2013 of what the playoff would be if one existed in 2013, is exactly what the 2014 playoff will be.
By my count, I had a very good year picking the conference divisional winners. Of the seven conferences with divisions, I had 10 of 14 divisional winners. Of the 10 FBS conferences, I had 7 of 10 winners. I will take that every year. While I was a few games off in many cases, by and large, I had very few complete whiffs. I will chalk this up to a pretty good year. But as a Gator fan, I hope I get the biggest prediction wrong, and that is FSU winning a second straight national title.